Data out this week shows New York’s pipeline of new condos shrinking through the end of the decade.

Corcoran Sunshine’s new Pipeline report projects that new condo launches will fall 11% through 2029. The mix is just as striking as the total: entry-level supply priced under $1,800 a square foot is set to plunge 74%. And of the 52,000 or so units coming to market over the period, 78% will be rentals, not homes you can buy.

The bottleneck is structural. Since a 2019 rent-law change ended most condo conversions, Manhattan developers have brought fewer than 1,500 new for-sale units to market a year, while about 1,800 typically sell. If you are a buyer waiting for a wave of new product under $3 million, it is not coming. The homes already on the market are the market.

On a personal note, late summer has been extremely busy for my business, with clients picking up deals now, ahead of what we expect to be a very busy fall market. The quiet weeks of August have been anything but.

This week’s Top Ten leans into what scarcity looks like: a full-floor penthouse at Sutton Tower, a brand-new Upper East Side townhouse listing just off Fifth, and a loft over City Hall Park, down to a renovated Gramercy one bedroom at $875K. Eight are in Manhattan and two in Brooklyn. If one pulls at you, reply and we’ll set up a private tour before the fall rush.